What’s Next For Them?
One Take on the Current State of the Transition
from High School to College
on the North Fork of Long Island
First, some good news.
Most recent high school seniors at the three North Fork high schools intend to go on to college directly after high school. Most seniors apply to college, a majority to several colleges (the average is about nine per applicant). Those seniors (15%) who are not applying to college, intend instead to enter the military or seek employment, may, of course later decide to apply to college. What follows relates to those who have recently (2017-2020) applied to enter college directly from high school.
APPLICATIONS
North Fork High School Seniors Applying to College as Seniors, 2017-2020
| High Schools | Seniors | Applicants | Applications | Apps/Applicant | % Applying |
| Greenport | 195* | 165 | 1026 | 8 | 85% |
| Southold | 148 | 125 | 1483 | 12 | 85% |
| Mattituck | 350 | 320 | 2801 | 9 | 91% |
| All 3 HSs | 693 | 610 | 5310 | 9 | 88% |
College Applications by North Fork High School Graduates, by Institutional Governance,
2017-2020
| High Schools | Private Colleges | Public Colleges | % Publics |
| Greenport | 462 | 564 | 55% |
| Southold | 750 | 733 | 49% |
| Mattituck | 1331 | 1470 | 52% |
| All 3 HSs | 2543 | 2767 | 52% |
Takeaway: Applications about evenly divided between private and public
colleges among the seniors of all three high schools.
College Applications by North Fork High School Graduates, by College Locale,
2017-2020
| High Schools | Out-of-State | In-State | % Out-of-State | % In-State |
| Greenport | 506 | 520 | 49% | 51% |
| Southold | 770 | 713 | 52% | 48% |
| Mattituck | 1677 | 1124 | 60% | 40% |
| All 3 HSs | 2953 | 2357 | 56% | 44% |
Takeaway: Applications were also about evenly distributed between in-state and
out-of-state colleges, with Mattituck applicants applying to out-of-state colleges
with somewhat greater frequency than the other two high schools.
College Applications by North Fork Seniors to Private Colleges, by Location,
2017-2020
| High Schools | Out-of-State Private Colleges | % of all Applications | In-State Private Colleges | % of all Applications |
| Greenport | 252 | 28% | 170 | 17% |
| Southold | 497 | 34% | 253 | 17% |
| Mattituck | 1087 | 39% | 244 | 9% |
| All 3 HSs | 1876 | 35% | 667 | 13% |
Takeaway: Mattituck applicants more often considering out-of-state private colleges
than Southold and Greenport applicants.
ENROLLMENTS
While complete data exist on where North Fork high schoolers apply to college, data on acceptances and matriculations are less complete (or less publicly available). From currently available data for public scrutiny (which varies from school to school and request to request), the following sample is suggestive of the current situation in terms of enrollment.
The North Fork College-Going Sample
| Years Covered | # College Goers | % of Sample | |
| Greenport High School | 2017-2020 | 192 | 30% |
| Southold High School | 2017-2019 | 125 | 20% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 2017-2019 | 321 | 50% |
| All Three High Schools | 638 | 100% |
North Fork College Enrollments by College Governance
| Private Colleges | % Private | Public Colleges | % Public | |
| Greenport High School | 32 | 17% | 160 | 83% |
| Southold High School | 38 | 30% | 87 | 70% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 101 | 31% | 220 | 69% |
| All Three High Schools | 171 | 27% | 467 | 73% |
Takeaway: North Fork college-goers are considerably more likely to enroll in a public college (73%) than they were earlier to apply to one. (48%) This is particularly the case with Greenport college-goers.
North Fork College Enrollments by Location
| Out-of-State | In-State | % In-State | |
| Greenport High School | 35 | 157 | 82% |
| Southold High School | 48 | 77 | 62% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 141 | 180 | 56% |
| All Three High Schools | 224 | 414 | 65% |
Takeaway: North Fork college-goers are also more likely to enroll in an in-state
college (65%) than apply to one (44%), again with Greenporters the most likely
remain in state and Mattituckers the least likely to do so.
Regional Distribution of North Fork Graduates Attending College Out-of-State
| Out-of-State Regions of NF College Goers | Greenport | Southold | Mattituck | Totals | % of All Enrollees |
| New England | 16 | 20 | 50 | 86 | 14% |
| Mid-Atlantic | 4 | 7 | 30 | 41 | 6% |
| South | 10 | 18 | 47 | 75 | 12% |
| Midwest | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 2% |
| Mountain West | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1% |
| Pacific Coast | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1% |
| Foreign | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| 35 | 48 | 141 | 224 | ||
| All Out-of-Staters | 193 | 125 | 321 | 636 | 36% |
North Fork College-Goers Attending New York Public Colleges
| # | % of College-Goers | |
| Greenport High School | 144 | 75% |
| Southold High School | 67 | 54% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 142 | 44% |
| All Three High Schools | 353 | 55% |
North Fork College-Goers Attending a SUNY or CUNY College, 2017-2019
| # | % of School College-Goers | |
| Greenport High School | 49 | 26% |
| Southold High School | 35 | 28% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 51 | 16% |
| All Three High Schools | 135 | 21% |
North Fork College-Goers Attending Suffolk County Community College
| # | % of College-Goers | |
| Greenport High School | 95 | 49% |
| Southold High School | 32 | 26% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 91 | 28% |
| All Three High Schools | 218 | 34% |
Takeaway Comment: Many of the North Forkers who end up attending SCCC
(upwards of 20% of Greenporters) do so after applying only to SCCC. [Data for
Southold and Greenport not obtained.]
Shift from Application Process to Enrollment Outcomes for
North Fork College-Goers, 2017-2019
| In-State Public Applications | In-State Public Enrollments | |
| Greenport High School | 32% | 75% |
| Southold High School | 27% | 54% |
| Mattituck Cutchogue High School | 28% | 44% |
| All Three High Schools | 28% | 55% |
Takeaway: What seems to occur between the application process and
the actual enrollment is a marked shift [i.e., a doubling] toward in-
state public colleges, from and out-of- state private colleges. This shift
occurs among all three high school college-goers, though less
dramatically among Mattituck college-goers. The result is a
substantial narrowing of outcomes – more geographically-
bounded and tax-support-reliant — from an earlier and more varied set
of possibilities. A “parochicalization,” if you need a big and slightly
pejorative word to describe the process.
SELECTIVITY
Some problematic news.
And now to the matter of the selectivity (i.e., degree of difficulty to secure admission) of the colleges North Forkers attend. This characteristic is based on a college’s admit rate (i.e., admits divided by applications), and will use the following categorization.
| Category | Admit Rate |
| Very Selective | 5% to 20% |
| Selective | 21% to 40% |
| Modestly Selective | 41% to 60% |
| Less Selective | 61% to 80% |
| Non-Selective | 81% to 100% |
North Fork College-Goers by Selectivity of Colleges Where they Enrolled, 2017-2019
| Categories | Greenport* | % | Southold | % | Mattituck | % | All | All % |
| Very Selective | 6 | 3% | 2 | 2% | 15 | 5% | 23 | 4% |
| Selective | 2 | 1% | 2 | 2% | 24 | 8% | 28 | 4% |
| Modestly Selective | 43 | 22% | 36 | 29% | 63 | 20% | 142 | 22% |
| Less Selective | 32 | 17% | 36 | 29% | 88 | 28% | 156 | 25% |
| Non Selective | 109 | 57% | 49 | 39% | 129 | 40% | 287 | 45% |
| Totals | 192 | 100% | 125 | 100% | 319 | 100% | 636 | 100% |
* Includes 2020
Takeaway: A substantial majority (70%) of North Fork seniors attend either a
“non-selective” or “less selective” college; only a minority attend colleges that
are “modestly selective,” and only a tiny minority are attending “selective” or
“very competitive” colleges.
Note: Does the selectivity of a college matter?
Yes, in many ways, including but not limited to the following list:
Persistence – the more selective the college the more likely a first-year student will
return for a second year: in the mid-90% range among most of the most
selectives; in the 60- 70% range for most of the less and non-selectives);
Graduation Rates – 90% for the most selectives graduate after 4-years; in the 60%
range and less from less and non-selectives colleges;
Student Debt – the most selectives are generally more generous with financial aid
and less likely to include substantial repayable loans in their financial-side
packages than less selective colleges;
Student Services – the most selectives commit substantially more funding per student
for student services such as advising, health services, extra-curricular activities;
National Recognition – the most selectives are more widely known outside their
immediate location than less selective colleges, which can be a help in job-seeking;
Class size – the most selective colleges (including the select public universities) have
smaller classes and lower student-to-faculty ratios than the less and non-selective
colleges;
Faculty credentials – Students at more select colleges will have a higher proportion of
teachers with PhDs and full-time appointments than at less and non-selective
colleges:
Post-BA training – Graduates of more select colleges are more likely to go on for
professional studies than graduates of less and non-select colleges;
Future Income – graduates of selective and very selective colleges make substantially
higher lifetime earnings than graduates of less and non-selective colleges.
SO WHAT?
If the foregoing is a roughly accurate depiction of the current reality for North Fork college-goers, what, if anything, are we to make of it?
Three possible reactions:
1. These outcomes are acceptable, even commendable, and no further consideration
of the North Fork high school-to-college articulation issue is needed;
2. Further consideration is appropriate, if only to gain a better understanding of the
economic, social, cultural and opportunity factors that contribute to these outcomes;
3. Further consideration is appropriate, with an eye to increasing the support available
to North Fork high schoolers contemplating attending college, especially those
whose family circumstances do not include direct experience with the college-going
process and where proximity, the likelihood of admission, risk-adversity, fear of
competition, and “sticker price” considerations appear to dictate many outcomes.
While I personally prefer the third reaction – further consideration for purposes of remediation — the second might well serve to produce subsequent support for the third and would be instructive in its own way. The first reaction – to do nothing — strikes me as a disservice to the North Fork’s present and future high schoolers, to their teachers and guidance counsellors, to their families and to the community that have taken on the responsibility to provide its kids with a serviceable education.
Bob McCaughey
Professor of History Emeritus
Barnard College, Columbia University
35-year resident of the North Fork
2860 Pine Tree Road, Cutchogue, New York 11935
ram31@columbia.edu
North Fork College Bound 